Half full. Half empty.

At a recent presentation, a respected doctor expressed some frustration with the criticism that is sometimes directed towards the medical profession. He pointed out that the medical community has actually done a very good job taking care of serious illnesses in the population. He noted that this is because doctors really devote their lives to improving patient outcomes.

To support this point, he presented the chart above from the AHRQ Center for Delivery, Organizations and Markets (full study here) that demonstrates improvement in hospital risk-adjusted mortality for important diagnoses and procedures. Whether you have a heart attack or pneumonia, or whether you have an aneurysm repair or a hip replacement, your chance of dying in a hospital has gone down over the years. (I know this data ends in 2004, but I would be confident that the trends have held.)

Source:http://www.thehealthcareblog.com

Statistics – Using the Truth to Mislead

My daughter is an accountant. She took a statistics class in high school, and another as a requirement for her major. My son has taken a statistics course, and he is an English Literature major. I was a chemistry major in college and have an an MD and have never taken a statistics course. I don’t even recall a lecture on statistics in medical school. Mark Twain quoted Disraili as saying, “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.” Reading medical journal articles reporting on the benefits and lack of benefits when reported statistically can be really challenging. Reading a report of these, or worse listening to an interested party, like a sales rep or sponsored speaker talk about a study, requires being a skeptic. Here are some examples of how true statistics can be worse than a lie, and how what would seem to be common sense does not pay off.
Source: http://www.thehealthcareblog.com/

Greenspan Grilled Over Role in Financial Crisis

Former Fed chief Alan Greenspan faced some of the toughest questioning yet about his role in the financial crisis at a hearing Wednesday marked by tense exchanges with a longtime foe.

Later in the day, members of the congressionally chartered Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission also ripped Citigroup Inc. executives for their role in the subprime meltdown, where Citigroup was an early and major casualty. The commission is holding three days of hearings on the evolution of the subprime market.

Panel members repeatedly questioned why Mr. Greenspan didn't do more to stem the flow of risky subprime loans, pop the resulting ...

Facebook Meeting Could Be Just In Time

In recent weeks, I've been watching the Facebook 'privacy saga' continue, as the tech media and others continue to takes sides over Facebook's rapid switch from a somewhat 'closed' network to one that any search engine could index.

I wrote one post expressing what I found discussing it with others.

In recent weeks, I raised the subject of social media policies. Many of us work under them. Some are very strict. Others simple .... yet potent.

I have no issue with social media policies. Done right, it's a smart move by many companies.

So what's new?

In recent weeks, many companies have been re-visiting their social media policies, and, factually, many (more) are now outright blocking Facebook. In many of these cases, I have to agree. Segmented blocking by employees that shouldn't be surfing at work makes sense to me. Facebook, by its very nature, could be an outright distraction.

The buzz around all of this could be enough to push companies that now permit cellphones to ban them as well.

Facebook needs to slow down and/or provide very visible notification (and simple instructions) to users on how to share ... and more importantly ... not to share .... depending on one's situation.

If you were using Friendfeed, you knew your stuff was public (or you had very simple controls to block it).

Applying Friendfeed-like logic to Facebook was wrong. Even the bounce-to-the-top news feed change was confusing to many ... if not most users.

So, as some high-profile bloggers are closing their Facebook accounts while others are embracing the 'open' and explaining why it doesn't bother them, I for one am anxiously looking forward to what comes out of tomorrow's meeting.

Corporations and Governments around the world, I'm sure, are watching as well.

Aristotle on Money and Happiness

Aristotle was a Greek philosopher, a student of Plato and teacher of Alexander the Great, who lived in the fourth century, BC. Contrary to Plato, he believed in freedom, although he was not overly fond of democracy. He preferred an ideal kingship, but recognized that few kings lived up to his ideal and that kingship typically turns into tyranny. Democracy, in his view the corrupted form of constitutional government, is not so bad a perversion as tyranny.

He was an advocate of the middle class. He thought reason to be the way to greatest happiness and happiness to be the ultimate good. Morality was based, in his view, on virtues, habits or states of character in accordance with the right rule learned from childhood. Virtues include moral virtues like courage, temperance and justice. Other moral virtues include good temper, tact and interpersonal skills, generosity or liberality, the ability to virtuously make (or at least have) money, the magnificence of a generous man of great wealth, and the ability to succeed in the political world of the Athenian democracy. He views virtuous behavior as appropriate in a given situation, the mean or optimal way of behaving. As well, Aristotle emphasized the intellectual virtues of philosophic wisdom, science, intuitive understanding, practical wisdom, and knowledge of crafts or skills. Practical wisdom involves applying a particular to a general principle. Excellent deliberation succeeds in attaining the ends sought. There is no conflict between success in what today we would call the economic sense and morality. Rather, economic success would have been inconceivable to Aristotle as success were it not virtuous.

Aristotle saw the highest virtue as a life dedicated to philosophy and thought. But he was a realist. He did not see money as the root of all evil. Rather, the virtues are a unity. For instance, one cannot be successful without being truthful. That is a far cry from today's post-Enlightenment world, where ethics and the ability to be successful are viewed as contradictory.

In the final book of his Nicomachean Ethics he discusses the link between money and a life devoted to philosophical wisdom:

"But, being a man, one will also need external prosperity; for our nature is not self-sufficient for the purpose of contemplation, but our body must be healthy and must have food and other attention. Still, we must not think that the man who is to be happy will need many things or great things, merely because he cannot be supremely happy without external goods; for self-sufficiency and action do not involve excess, and we can do noble acts without ruling earth and sea; for even with moderate advantages one can act virtuously (this is manifest enough; for private persons are thought to do worthy acts no less than despots--indeed, even more); and it is enough that we should have so much as that; for the life of the man who is active in accordance with virtue will be happy. Solon, too, was perhaps sketching well the happy man when he described him as moderately furnished with externals but as having done (as Solon thought) the noblest acts, and lived temperately; for one can with but moderate possessions do what one ought. Anaxagoras also seems to have supposed the happy man not to be rich nor a despot, when he said that he would not be surprised if the happy man were to seem to most people a strange person; for they judge by externals, since externals are all they perceive. The opinions of the wise seem, then, to harmonize with our arguments. But while even such things carry some conviction, the truth in practical matters is discerned from the facts of life, and if it harmonizes with the facts we must accept it, but if it clashes with them we must suppose it to be mere theory. Now he who exercises his reason and cultivates it seems to be both in the best state of mind and most dear to the gods. For if the gods have any care for human affairs, as they are thought to have, it would be reasonable both that they should delight in that which was best and most akin to them...And that all these attributes belong most of all to the philosopher is manifest. He therefore, is dearest to the gods. And he who is that will presumably be the happiest..."
Source: http://mitchell-langbert.blogspot.com/2010/05/aristotle-on-money-and-happiness.html

Dos and Don’ts in Trading ETFs

The media is calling last week’s freak 1,000 point plunge in the Dow Jones Industrial Average a “flash crash”. The crash was especially deadly for ETFs. Media reports indicate that as much as one fourth of ETFs suffered suspicious declines. More than two-thirds of the names on the list of canceled trades involve ETFs. ETFs trading on the TSX were not immune to the crash. For instance, the iShares Dow Jones Canada Select Dividend Index Fund (XDV) traded as low as $14.30 and recovered to close at $19.15.

Most of us are investors, not professional traders and we buy ETFs with the aim of holding them for the long-term. However, we have to recognize that, unlike mutual funds, ETFs depend on markets operating smoothly to keep prices in line with NAV and markets do occasionally go haywire.

Don’ts in Trading ETFs

  • A Stop Loss Order is a sell order placed below the current market price. It becomes a market order if the stock reaches the stop loss price or trades below it. If you enter a stop loss order, your experience could turn out like this one reported in the Wall Street Journal. A financial advisor with $4.2 million in three widely-held ETFs had placed sell orders on them. They were cashed out at prices ranging from 10 cents to 12 cents leaving a grand total of $4,200 in the account. Don’t let it happen to you.
  • A Market Order is an order to buy or sell a specified number of shares at the best available price. For liquid and widely-held ETFs, market orders are typically filled close to the market price. But in times of extreme volatility, a sell order even for the most liquid security might attract just stink bids. It may be best to avoid this risk altogether with a Limit Order.

Dos in Trading ETFs

  • A Limit Order specifies the price at which you are willing to buy or sell a security. By entering a buy order at a penny or two higher than the ask price or a sell order at a penny or two less than the bid price and the bid-ask prices are close to NAV, an ETF investor can avoid being surprised by market action like the one last week.
  • If you must, at least enter a Stop Loss Limit Order, which is exactly like a Stop Loss Order, except that it becomes a limit order if the stop loss is triggered.

    The media is calling last week’s freak 1,000 point plunge in the Dow Jones Industrial Average a “flash crash”. The crash was especially deadly for ETFs. Media reports indicate that as much as one fourth of ETFs suffered suspicious declines. More than two-thirds of the names on the list of canceled trades involve ETFs. ETFs trading on the TSX were not immune to the crash. For instance, the iShares Dow Jones Canada Select Dividend Index Fund (XDV) traded as low as $14.30 and recovered to close at $19.15.

    Most of us are investors, not professional traders and we buy ETFs with the aim of holding them for the long-term. However, we have to recognize that, unlike mutual funds, ETFs depend on markets operating smoothly to keep prices in line with NAV and markets do occasionally go haywire.

    Don’ts in Trading ETFs

  • A Stop Loss Order is a sell order placed below the current market price. It becomes a market order if the stock reaches the stop loss price or trades below it. If you enter a stop loss order, your experience could turn out like this one reported in the Wall Street Journal. A financial advisor with $4.2 million in three widely-held ETFs had placed sell orders on them. They were cashed out at prices ranging from 10 cents to 12 cents leaving a grand total of $4,200 in the account. Don’t let it happen to you.
  • A Market Order is an order to buy or sell a specified number of shares at the best available price. For liquid and widely-held ETFs, market orders are typically filled close to the market price. But in times of extreme volatility, a sell order even for the most liquid security might attract just stink bids. It may be best to avoid this risk altogether with a Limit Order.

Dos in Trading ETFs

  • A Limit Order specifies the price at which you are willing to buy or sell a security. By entering a buy order at a penny or two higher than the ask price or a sell order at a penny or two less than the bid price and the bid-ask prices are close to NAV, an ETF investor can avoid being surprised by market action like the one last week.
  • If you must, at least enter a Stop Loss Limit Order, which is exactly like a Stop Loss Order, except that it becomes a limit order if the stop loss is triggered.
Source: http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=164545946046058803

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